As the war in Iran enters its second month, the Persian Gulf is now under the threat of a terrible ground war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, gave a defiant speech marking 30 days of fighting. He said that any American soldiers who tried to set foot on Iranian soil would be met with a “rain of fire” and promised to turn the region into a graveyard for foreign troops.
The warning comes as satellite images and military reports show that U.S. and allied forces are gathering in large numbers. This weekend, 3,500 more U.S. troops came to the area from bases in Asia. They joined a growing fleet that includes the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier strike group.
The Fight for Kharg Island
Military experts think that the sudden increase in ground troops is a sign of a specific strategic goal: Kharg Island. The island is called the “beating heart” of Iran’s economy because it handles more than 90% of the country’s oil exports.
People in the Pentagon say that taking the island would help them reach two important goals:
Economic strangulation means cutting off the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) main source of money.
The Strait of Hormuz: Setting up a staging ground to forcibly reopen the Strait, which has been closed since late February and is blocking 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply.
An Invasion by Telegraph?
But the lack of tactical surprise is making people in Washington and other places worried. This buildup on the ground has been slow and very obvious, unlike the quick air strikes that started on February 28. “The enemy signals negotiation in public while plotting a ground attack in secret,” Ghalibaf said, claiming that Iranian forces have been laying mines and strengthening coastal defences for weeks. Experts say that a U.S. landing, even with better weapons, could lead to a “bloodbleed” on both sides if there is no element of surprise.
The Nuclear Wildcard
Reports that U.S. Special Operations teams are getting ready for dangerous raids on hardened nuclear sites are making things even more tense. People in Western intelligence are becoming more and more afraid that the Iranian government, which is in a desperate situation, might try to turn enriched materials into weapons as a last resort to stop a full-scale invasion.
Damage to the region
The Gulf Arab states next door are already taking the brunt of the fighting. Billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure are in danger, and a lot of people are leaving the region, which is hurting the economy.
If regional partners keep hosting U.S. bases used for attacks, Tehran has promised to “punish them forever.” The attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facility in the middle of March, which is the biggest in the world, is a sad reminder that Iran is willing to attack global energy infrastructure to make the war worse.
What the market did
The markets around the world are still unstable. This week, Brent crude prices briefly hit $115 per barrel. Prices changed when news broke that the Trump administration might look at a “peace proposal” with 15 strict demands. But Ghalibaf’s call for a “major global war” to protect Iran’s sovereignty makes it less likely that a diplomatic breakthrough will happen.
For now, the world is keeping an eye on the Persian Gulf, where a single mistake on the ground could cause a worldwide economic depression.
